We live in an era of uncertainty and complexity, which impairs our ability to forecast and make business plans. OUR conventional methods of thinking add to the problem. We believe that within complexity there is a need to identify a simpler thought process. Since there is an increasing frequency of change; new skills must empower the majority to become self reliant for solution design within the uncertainty and chaos that exists. We refer to this environment as a “Non-Linear Era”.

We now witness sharp fall in OUTPUT wherever there is a continued use of old & erstwhile successful INPUTS, SUCH AS experience based skills. With frequent change in our socio-economic environment we CANNOT ASSUME THAT NEW RESOURCES WILL ALWAYS BE AVAILABLE FOR EVERY NEW IDEA or NEW IMPLEMENTATION. Non Linear Thinking helps us TRAIN the mind to always think “within existing resources”. As we have read in WHAT IS NLT? The mind functions best when it is “restricted”. Thinking within existing resources and given circumstances leads to MORE CREATIVE IDEAS contrary to the assumption that OPEN FREE THINKING produces creativity. That may have been logical in the LINEAR ERA where “life followed patterns and the mind perceived almost everything according to “Assigned folders” developed by past events which then become “beliefs, firm opinions and fixed ideas”. Thus when designing solutions our conventional “opinionated thinking” resources are trained to study past patterns and assume that some “case” in History will provide us the solution even to a NEW ENVIRONMENT or EVENT.

We need to acknowledge that new events in this NON LINEAR ERA whether in crime, terrorism, war, financial collapse, monetary measures, market conditions, consumer demand and even Disease is being experienced in NEW forms that have no similar or emulative reference in our recent past. This we must recognize as NON LINEAR EVENTS and they require a different thinking for solution design.

Lets examine just a few of the “dramatic changes” that are now common BUT have minimal historical precedence.

•  While Democracy is the preferred global social order IT IS being threatened by the very LIBERTY it grants. The conventional implementation and application of the democratic process allows those with greater economic resources to exploit the system to their advantage. Maturing Democracies now breed in-equality and the favored FEW who control the majority of global wealth and control global resources. The actions of ONE percent of the Global population can destroy the financial stability of the World. ONLY Economic intervention determines the success of any solution whether it is for growth or resolution. Conversely economic strength can undermine the progress of democracy.

•  The fringe and extremist minority (in numbers) are now in a position to force the majority to change their lifestyle. A small minority can impair democratic freedom of the majority. Special interest and extreme opinion are able to VOICE their views louder than the majority because of their FOCUS and economic support.

•  The Worlds richest economies are also the highest debtor (poorest) nations. BUT their ability to consume had become the principal measure for “wealth”, contrary to our conventional understanding of wealth. NOW the ability to consume is renders greater economic strength than the ability to produce!

•  LOWER interest rates commence as the stimulus fuel for investments in the linear phase; but as rates approach zero start, they reduce the added value and innovation that was earlier created by scarcer capital. After their initial STIMULUS effect, zero interest creates a stagnation because it encourages the build up of excess capacity which is indiscriminately created by the LOW cost of capital. NEGLIGIBLE added value with excess capacity finally reduces “growth” because there is no added value to generate wealth.

•  The economic valuation of ALL natural resources (essential for our survival) are at the LOWEST ECONOMIC LEVEL based on the assumption that they are FREE GIFTS from nature and thus their renewal cost has been ignored. Their costing has been based on cost of extraction, transport, usage and only very recently disposal has been added. The price is left to free market demand. THIS logic has created havoc with the environment. It is important to note that a fractional excess or shortage triggers a VERY HIGH variation in prices because SPECULATION and DERIVATIVE values distort the valuation. This is unfair for the marginal users who are always the majority.

•  In the past linear era REVENUE & ADDED value was provided by product or services supplied to the MASS MAJORITY. Now most products and services that have a mass demand or requirement; offer minimal economic opportunity for added value. They are either FREE, SUBSIDIZED or in a highly competitive Free market environment where huge capital is required. Price alone for basic need based supply; offers minimal added value.

•  In the Non Linear Era we find that the ADDED VALUE within most products and services lies within its ‘non-essential features” that require high levels of discretionary income'. Non Linear Thinking helps create “differentiators and innovative ideas” as and when required WITHOUT NEED FOR CREATIVE EXPERTS. NLT trains the mind to think “within existing resources” with a singular focus on IMPLEMENTATION ability and NOT THE IDEAL SOLUTIONS.

•  In the non linear era even Governments are dependant on “non essentials and harmful products” for their revenue such as Tobacco, Alcohol and Gambling. This revenue have become survival sources and hence there can be no objectivity about their growth despite the negative effect on society.

•  With a faster rate of obsolescence in technology; Products are no longer produced based on a known demand but an “unknown customer aspiration” which we hope has been accurately anticipated. Hence the demand for a NEW product or service will NOW only be known AFTER it is launched. The product or service offering has to be unique and NEW TO ALL.

•  It is unfortunate that while we are well within this Non Linear Era where the future is not emulating any past pattern; the OLD successes of the linear era are still expected to provide us KNOWLEDGE. We still place excessive value on past experience.

•  Past knowledge and Past experience can no longer help us develop “solutions for the future” as effectively as before.

•  It is “tragic” that developing economies like India are being pushed to EMULATE past models of success and are expected to increase their linear consumption based on past statistics of the developed World. These “linear numbers” are considered to be the principal indicators of progress. Though experience shows (despite denials) that we in India normally learn by “default”: in this case our learning cost will be prohibitive. We must develop capabilities to develop our own models of consumption.

•  IN the Non Linear future a higher per capita consumption of steel or power WILL NO longer be indicators of industrial or social prosperity; it could indicate inefficiency OR usage of old technology.

•  A linear increase in the per capita consumption of “grains” is no longer indicative of a nutritional improvement AND in fact is an indicator of poor nutrition.

•  Despite a strong economic & legal infrastructure within the developed democratic world - “CRIME” has continued its unabated LINEAR growth to become the Democratic World's most powerful economic force & now most likely the dominant employer. IF CRIME is able to consistently grow and thrive EVEN in resource rich, mature democracies over the long term; then we can forecast them to OVER RUN and control the poor developing democratic World. A country like India does not have the resources to FIGHT crime and maintain democracy within the SAME DEFINITION over its entire geography. It is unlikely that our villagers will be able to call 911 to report a Naxal attack!

•  PARADOXICALLY in developing and democratic countries like India , there seems to have been better economic growth when the governments are weaker within coalition politics. This implies that the deterrent to growth is “political meddling and corruption” not necessarily just good policy. Ofcourse a very FRAGMENTED coalition implies a mess based on ZERO decisions and implementation.

•  When India had “strong central government” for 4 decades; we experienced our lowest rate of growth; OFTEN described as the Hindu rate of growth. Post 1991 when we have had coalition Governments and changing regimes, we have experienced faster growth; based on reform.

•  Whenever South Asia has had strong political leaders within democracy, there has been relative stagnancy and corruption, based on what is best described as the COMMON ASIAN ECONOMIC VIRUS of CRONY CAPITALISM. THE EXCEPTIONS have been based on individual personalities in Singapore and Malaysia ; and now in CHINA where the successes have paradoxically been based on MINIMAL DEMOCRACY!!

•  Today shorter duration courses of few weeks that focus on vocational training and application based education are able to provide a greater return on investment within a career when compared to years of college education that are now insufficient to find a gainful employment to develop a career.

•  While school and colleges have over decades DEVELOPED & PERFECTED a standardized learning system to create many EQUALS ; we all search for human resource in this Non Linear Era who have “unique qualities that are different to the rest'. This has led to the distorted logic where “real life case studies” are taught in high cost B schools, and theoretical and complex knowledge that has little practical application is taught in the LOWEST COST primary schools.

•  Modern education has developed “theories and systems based on PAST successes that are less applicable in a Non Linear Era. The future need is for CREATIVITY and INNOVATION to become common skills. IT IS CRUCIAL THAT WE REDUCE THE PERCEIVED VALUE of PAST KNOWLEDGE AND PAST LEARNING and learn to think BUT within our own constraints!

•  Modern technology churns out huge quantities of data and more information than ever before. This over analysis creates a paralysis and the “information overload creates complexities that we are “revealed or observed” based on excess data. Digital technology, faster communication and chip speeds have created ONLINE interaction and trading systems that are IDEAL for large scale speculation based on minimal decimal margins. THE DERIVATIVE TRADING TENDENCY WITH MINIMAL MARGIN OF SAFETY IS PERHAPS THE GREATEST EVIL WITHIN FREE MARKETS AND CAN DESTROY ECONOMIES AND MILLIONS OF INNOCENT LIVES. This wild fiscal animal has been designed to be a product to accommodate jobs and create NEW virtual wealth in economies that have “given up production and creation”. They now trade in NON EXISTENT global “derivatives” using finer margins to increase volumes, YET seem unable to accept the natural gyrations that must accompany this “wild animal” when it is let loose in our technological and networked infrastructure. Linear thinking is just too slow to match the result.

•  The linear NORM and theories for products and services HAS BEEN THAT EARLY TO MARKET has usually resulted in a great advantage for the FIRST MOVER who catches the EARLY buyers. In the Non Linear Era however we see that this advantage can be NEGATED by rapid advance of digital technologies. Moore 's Law and FALLING costs can now favor the LAST entrant who has the opportunity to enter at a far lower cost WHEN markets and consumer demand have been developed by the first entrant and now matured. The FIRST MOVER may be the creator of the product or service BUT another can wait till volume adoption has begun and then enter at a greater advantage. The faster obsolescence of technology adds to this complexity.

•  Good health is no longer sufficient to provide protection against “disease”; as Good Health and Good Immunity are no longer concurrent conditions! Good health does not mean Good immunity. We believe that the study of Health is a LINEAR logic based science, whereas the study of the Immunity will require Non Linear Logic.

•  Disease as per Linear LOGIC was and is still assumed to be caused by EXTERNAL invading organisms in the form of bacteria or viruses. Today in a Non Linear Era our LIFESTYLE is the principal creator of disease, NOT external organisms. Our reduced immunity brought about by this change in lifestyle leaves us more susceptible to life threatening diseases.

If we accept the above trends then we should agree that LINEAR LOGIC IS no longer a suitable thought process for modern solution design. NON LINEAR THINKING (NLT) provides us better tools to design creative but economical solutions that can be implemented within complexity & uncertainty; AND well within our existing resources.

WHAT is NLT? I WHEN DO WE NEED NLT?