Within uncertainty and complexity, solutions seem elusive because our thought process remains based on “post mortem analyses”. Using Non Linear thinking, successful solution design requires some basic changes as described in “The Fundamentals. ”

  
 
  THESE ARE:  
 
 
  • The need to REMOVE intellectual idealism from the thought process.

  • While this in no way suggests “thinking outside the Law”, it does seek to remove (as reflex) the ingrained perceptions of RIGHT & WRONG. Those who have “fixed perceptions” about right and wrong need to be considered “extremists that resist change”. Many use the guise of morals or religion to negate any opportunity for progress!

  • This is because Right and wrong are “relative to past norms” and they are no longer identifiable across different age groups, societies and varied cultures. What was considered “wrong” in our parents generation is now acceptable. This is not to condone or judge as who was right or wrong; JUST TO STATE THE REALITIES OF THIS ERA and THE FUTURE DIRECTION that indicates MORE UPHEAVAL of OLD THINKING!!

  • In this Non Linear Era we find that the majority of OUR socio-economic problems are NOW less DUE TO any specific event; and MORE “by the old differences that still persist between the multiple perceptions of people within our varied society. Most of these perceptions and beliefs are relative AND cannot be judged by any specific universal standard". Paradoxically we have not developed NEW societal laws that actually suit URBANIZATION, and when we “invoke our natural instinct for tribal behaviour”; society seems to be “moving backwards” despite the spread of greater education and literacy. While our thought process remains “TRADITIONALLY TRIBAL”: THE PERSONAL opportunity for CONTROL & PERSONAL FREEDOM through “economic gain” has become the ONE common goal across ALL cultures that are exposed to MODERN URBANIZATION!!

  • The ONLY COMMON RESPONSE for “resolution of differences” across the globe therefore remains TRIBAL and takes the form of CONFLICT. Experience must show that conflict and force are NOW a “Jurassic approach” because in THIS Non Linear Era there can be NO WINNERS. ALL sides LOSE because “economic disruption is common to ALL SIDES”, and economics is so far the NEW common “value” of this era that controls human behaviour. (This is not right or wrong nor should one moralize --- IT IS JUST FACT!)

    BASED ON THE ABOVE : THE FOCUS FOR EFFECTIVE SOLUTION DESIGN USING Non Linear Thinking is: TO EVALUATE ANY POTENTIAL SOLUTION BASED ON ITS ABILITY TO MINIMIZE CONFLICT, EASE OF IMPLEMENTATION AND NOT WHETHER THE SOLUTION IS IDEALLY or THEORETICALLY THE RIGHT ONE ! (It may be emphasized that the reference is ALWAYS to complex problems where the environment of UNCERTAINTY is accepted by most)

  
 
 

EXCEPTIONS THAT MAY NOT NEED NON LINEAR THINKING!

  
     
 

IT IS PERHAPS NECESSARY TO TRY AND IDENTIFY THOSE WHO WILL NOT ACCEPT OR NEED THIS THOUGHT PROCESS FOR SOLUTION DESIGN !!

  
     
 

The EXCEPTIONS where Non Linear Thinking may not be required:

  1. Areas and persons working with NEW technologies and NEW research.

  2. This is because NEW INPUTS have SUFFICIENT LINEAR GROWTH within them before they will approach Relative Saturation! NLT identifies “relative saturation” as a KEY ENVIRONMENT that create a “recurring paradox” and THIS helps in the early identification of WHERE and WHEN OLD inputs need to be changed!!

  3. NEW technologies are INNOVATIVE and NEW at their starting point and they have enough commercial and social potential for exploitation IN THEIR ORIGINAL FORM and hence do not require CHANGE for some time; before the need arises for NEW VARIANTS and NEW TECHNOLOGY AGAIN!!

  4. BUT the last two decades indicate the natural trend towards a decreasing life cycle for new products and a very rapid pace of technology obsolescence. These are clear indicators of the Non Linear Era where ‘non-linear returns' set in much EARLIER than before.

  5. Then there are those who believe that they DO or CAN CONTROL their markets, customers and even the policy mechanisms. To them the thought of non-linear thinking is inherently negative because NLT helps to create “more equals”

  6. In developing economies like INDIA where infrastructure is deficient; there are the fortunate few who are able to control or have easier access to scarce resources! Their success and survival is dependant on the status quo retention and preferential access to existing and even NEW resources. They have little perceived need for change and hence would oppose NLT.


  7. Those in 6, use economic land political lobby to RETAIN and will therefore oppose what they consider to be disruptive change. This group usually awaits the return of the past.

With UNCERTAINTY AND COMPLEXITY throwing out NEW problems rapidly and with little relief, THE NON LINEAR ERA now limits the SCOPE FOR TRIAL AND ERROR as a METHODOLOGY for trying solutions or even product launches and commercial investments!! We are increasingly getting just ONE SHOT at markets, at solutions and to make corrective decisions!!

We therefore need a SELF INDICATIVE & SELF EVALUATING EARLY WARNING SYSTEM that will indicate the need for “change in INPUTS”. Solution design must therefore focus on IMPLEMENTABILITY AND NOT WHETHER THE SOLUTION IS THEORETICALLY OR IDEALLY CORRECT! ( Right and Wrong as perceptions are already explained above)

What are the tools available? Please suggest and see who is saying what in “TOPIC FORUMS”. Also Read concepts on “Relative Saturation” and “Paradox Evaluation”